Email to MET Office of 6 March 2018 following responses to emails of 13 January 2018 and 20 February

Thank you for your responses to my emails of 13 January and 20 February 2018. I have a number of questions arising from your responses which I have highlighted in bold.

You are indeed right that my communications started some three years ago. Unfortunately in that time I have not been able identify  any  improvements in MET Office ice forecasting.  I undertook a  snapshot survey in November and December 2016 and found that on 9 occasions on which gritters were deployed by local authorities and that  the MET Office forecast freezing conditions on only one occasion. I submitted this information with supporting data by email to the PWSCG on 10 December 2016. No explanation  was received of the reasons why ice was not forecast on these occasions.  When I identified three errors in ice forecasting in one week this year I felt it was appropriate to make contact with the MET Office.

In my email of 13 January I asked

'I would appreciate hearing 1)the current MET policy on forecasting ice in the circumstances above and 2)hearing what plans the MET Office currently have to issue forecasts of road temperatures . '

The response I received was 

'With regards to the dates in question -  6th, 7th and 12th January 2018 ice was not mentioned within the regional text forecast during the day.  However frost and below zero temperatures were mentioned in the previous “this evening and tonight” forecast.  The forecast that we issue for the overnight period will cover the early hours when ice is likely to have formed.  As ice is a strong concern for you, we recommend that you view our forecasts the night before to assist in planning your outdoor activities.'

This response did not directly address the request to be advised of current MET Office policy. No response was received to the my question about MET Office current plans to issue forecasts of road surface temperatures. The response makes recommendations personal to me about viewing the forecasts the night before. My query was about MET Office policy and plans. It was not seeking advice specific to myself. Q1 Could you please answer my query that requested 'hearing the current MET Office policy on forecasting ice'

I have been taking up the issue of ice forecasting not just on my on behalf but also in conjunction with  the following National Cycling Organisations: Cycling UK, British Cycling, British Triathlon and Sustrans. A paper was submitted to the PWSCG in 2016 titled Recommendations for Improvements in MET Office ice Prediction. This paper received contributions from the four National Cycling Organisations and was endorsed by each one. The Chief Executive of Sustrans was one of those who wrote to the PWSCG in support. I hope this explains why my concerns are those of the wider cycling community and not solely restricted to myself.

The response I received agrees that ice was not specifically forecast and refers me to a forecast the day before. I think this makes clear that ice forecasting needs to be improved for the following reasons.

1 When the MET Office weather service is accessed by the public, information about current weather conditions and those in the near future should be provided so that the public can make an informed decision to travel. The general public should not be expected to know that they cannot rely on a current regional forecast and should refer to the forecast from the night before. This is not a significant  issue for weather conditions ( rain, air temperature , sun , wind gust etc) that are forecast hourly for individual locations. However as the only indication of ice forecasting is often just from the regional forecast, then this forecast needs to be current. In the winter the 'tonight' forecast is current until the sun gets to work which is often past the time cyclists plan to start their journeys. The coldest conditions can be  around 7 am to 8am . A forecast for the early  morning which is automatically deleted at 12 midnight (see screenshot below from 10 February at 00.00 hours) does not provide the information necessary to make an informed travel decision. On some occasions the 'tonight' forecast is summarized  during the next morning but this is not consistent.

If  a Severe Weather Warning is in force, it is not deleted from the forecast before the time it expires. This principal should apply all forecasts.

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Note email at this point included  a screen shot showing a regional forecast at 00.00 hours where the 'tonight' forecast from the day before no longer showed and  was replaced by a 'today' forecast which was only valid after the sun got to work ie around 9 am

I have raised this issue previously under the heading of 'easy wins for the MET Office' but received no reply. I feel that  this  must be a simple matter to correct through management action and control.

Q2 Could you please advise if the regional forecasts will be corrected as I have requested above

2 The mention of frost in the 'evening and tonight' forecast does not signal ice in MET Office forecasts. When the MET Office forecasts ice  it is mentioned separately eg the regional forecast of 16 February stated  'After  a frosty start and risk of ice' . My cycling colleagues take frost to mean the formation of frost on, for example, grass. This can occur whether or not ice also occurs.

Q3 If the MET Office intend that a frost forecast is also an ice forecast can they always mention both frost and ice separately.

3 The response also states:

'We provide appropriate guidance to the public on the likelihood of ice forming on untreated surfaces, through multiple channels such as:

1. UK Video Forecast.

2. Regional Text Forecast

3. National Severe Weather Warning Service (NSWW)

4. Social Media Content     

To obtain a comprehensive understanding of the forecast and any uncertainties/weather challenges we may face we recommend that you view all of the above forecasts collectively.'

With the exception of the NSWW I use none of the above guidance in order to make an informed decision on whether to travel. There are many reasons eg a) inaccuracy as set out above the ice b ) the forecasts are usually for a very wide area (eg icy stretches are forecast in the South West) and so  do not  enable the public to make informed decisions regarding weather sensitive activities at a local scale within the UK and c) Road surface temperatures are not forecast  resulting in many members of the public relying on the 'temperature ' forecasts not realising that these are air temperatures which can be 4-5 degrees above road temperatures and d) the finish time of the ice risk is not stated unless a NSWW is in force. Even in this case, the NSWW can cover a major part of the country with just one start time and one finish time.

As a result I have worked in partnership with our local authority North Somerset to produce a much improved prediction of ice. This work was done in conjunction with the North Somerset Cycle Forum which represents cyclists and works in partnership with N Somerset Council. This improved prediction comprises a web link to the gritting tweets and  a link to the real time road surface temperature information .Unfortunately this only applies locally although several other parts of the country do have access to information applicable to their area, particularly the gritting information. Of particular interest to MET Office employees may be the information for Devon. Both gritting tweet web links and the real time RSTs from the 40 + weather stations are available. The Devon links are  https://twitter.com/devonalert for gritting and  http://www.trafficweather.info for RSTs Q4 Could you please comment on the usefulness of these links 

Gritting links have been listed on the MET Office web site but they are not signposted from weather forecasts and I suspect that very few people will be aware of them. There are several other issues with these links which I have pointed out previously eg a) the gritting twitter links are described as 'twitter' giving no indication what information they contain and b) there is no overall guidance to the purpose and usefulness of the links. In addition the listing of local authorities confused me and I suspect would confuse others. There are separate sections for each type of local authority eg Unitary. However, there is no index showing how the sections are set out. As  a result I searched what seemed to me the complete  list with no indication that there were continuation sheets. My local authority was not listed and so I assumed, wrongly,  that it was not present. The Vaisala site showing their weather station feeds lists all local authorities alphabetically which I suggest is the practice followed. The Traffic Scotland link is particularly useful as it provides both gritting information and weather station RSTs. It would be very helpful if this was emphasised. I suggest the Vaisala web site( http://www.trafficweather.info )is added to the list of sites Q5 Could the MET Office links to gritting information (and the RSTs for Scotland) be updated in accordance with these suggestions and recommendations

I made a presentation to the NS Cycle Forum :-

'Predicting icy roads

Weather forecasts have an uncertain accuracy for predicting ice and when it is predicted it is often just  a general statement such as 'in rural areas of the South West'. Some of us are skilled at reading the signs and can make an informed decision about riding. But some of us need more help. North Somerset provides two pieces of helpful information- gritter deployments and road surface temperature near real-time links. Gritter deployments help with deciding that it will be icy overnight,. Road surface temperatures help with deciding when the roads are likely to be free of ice in the morning.

    1 Gritter deployments each night are shown on the following link https://twitter.com/NStravel_roads.It is not guaranteed that the information will always be up to date but so far I have not found any omissions. North Somerset receives specialist forecasts which it uses to decide whether to grit.

     2  You may have noticed in Somerset Life that there is now  a link to three North Somerset weather stations (Clevedon, Churchill and Bristol Airport) that give near real-time road surface temperature information at http://www.trafficweather.info. . National Weather forecasts provide air temperatures which are a  poor guide to ice risk. Road surface temperatures are more relevant. These have limitations since the effect of traffic warms the road somewhat. But if they record zero then it is reasonable to assume that most rural routes and cycle paths in the area are below zero.'

This presentation was well received. I am collecting and acting on comments on this presentation. I will respond to all suggestions for improvement. Q6 If you have comments to make I would very much appreciate it. There is a vulnerability with this approach as it depends upon an affordable price being charged for access to real time RSTs.

As an interim way ahead I suggest that each of the individual locations where local forecasts are provided on the MET Office web site are linked, where possible, to gritting feeds and RST feeds. When a gritting action is taking place a flag would appear linking to the web sites. I suggest, as a trial, Scotland is used as the one web site covers all Scotland for both gritting and RST information. Q7 Have you any comments on this suggestion please ?

4 Your resonse states

'The way in which we forecast ice is in accordance with PWSCG guidelines.'

If I have followed the links that you provided in your email of 23 February then I conclude that this is not the case and that the way the MET Office forecasts ice is not compliant with PWSCG guidelines. I realise that this is a significant statement. Here is my reasoning:

Under  'UK Site Forecast Service Product/Service' it states

 'Purpose 

To enable the public to make informed decisions regarding weather sensitive activities at a local scale within the UK.  Five day single site forecasts for around 7000 locations around the UK. '

Ice is not included in the individual location forecasts. Other less significant weather features are such as humidity are included. The MET Office web site quotes British Cycling :-'Icy conditions are unpredictable and in most cases, no amount of riding skill will help you keep upright’.

Cyclists and motorcyclists are classed as vulnerable road users by the Department of Transport. The regional forecasts are often a generalised as 'icy stretches (in the South West)' .Cyclists and motorcyclists cannot  make informed decision regarding travel unless forecasts are on a local scale. Therefore ice forecasting needs to be published for the the same  locations as sun, rain , wind and humidity are now. 

I therefore conclude that the MET Office forecasts for ice are not compliant with PWSCG guidelines Q8 . Do you agree with this analysis. If not could you please explain with reasons

5 As stated above, in my email of 13 January I asked to  'hear  what plans the MET Office currently have to issue forecasts of road temperatures.' This question was not answered.Q9 Could you please respond to this question

6 I have several times in the passed offered to meet the MET Office face-to-face but this offer has not been taken up. I feel that this could be very productive and find solutions far more easily than corresponding. Q10 Would you please let me know if you will take up this offer to meet face-to-face

Kind Regards

Kevin Daniels