2. Email from Kevin Daniels to MET Office 25 April 2016 which was sent with an attachment of the above paper titled ‘Recommendations for improvements in MET Office Ice predictions’

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Good morning 

 

I have attached a document titled 'Recommendations for improvements in MET Office ice predictions. I hope you find helpful in the current discussions about weather forecasting for cyclists. It has been endorsed by Cycling UK, previously known as the CTC. Cycling UK and I look forward to receiving your comments.

 

I am sending it to the secretariat of the PWSCG asking that Denise Harker is provided with a copy in advance of the next meeting of the PWSCG on Wednesday 27 April.

 

At the foot of this email I have copied the Introduction to the document

 

Best wishes

 

Kevin Daniels

 

Cycling UK (previously CTC)

British Cycling

Audax (UK)

Pac-Tri

 

 

 

Introduction 

 

'This document reviews the current status of MET Office ice predictions and makes four recommendations for improvements. These improvements involve the publication of data that the MET Office generates but does not currently provide to the public in its forecasts. A principle behind the proposals is that the information should be communicated in simple direct terms. The full forecasts should be available on mobile phones.

 

The proposals have been put together with the help of Audax (UK) and Cycling UK. Cycling UK was previously known as the CTC. Cycling UK endorsed this document by email on 22 April 2016.

 

The proposals have been specifically produced to help cyclists make better informed decisions about when to cycle in winter conditions. The overall aim is to encourage more cyclists to cycle during the winter period as they will have better knowledge of the conditions. And the risk of injury should be significantly reduced as cyclists will be able to make better decisions about riding if ice is  a risk. This approach supports the Government policy to expand cycling.

 

Some of the limitations of the current MET Office forecasts are recognised in the recent MET Office blog 

http://www.cyclinguk.org/blog/metoffice/ice-time-ride-reading-signs. This blog also makes the point that 'cycling on ice can often result in physical injury'.

 

Whilst the proposals are aimed at cyclists they are hoped to be valuable to all other road users. As an example, motorcyclists have similar issues to cyclists and should benefit as should car drivers on ungritted roads. Pedestrians should also be helped, such as the more elderly for whom a fall on ice can easily lead to bones being broken.

 

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3 Response of 29 April 2016 by the PWSCG to the paper titled ‘Recommendations for improvements in MET Office Ice predictions’

 

Dear Kevin,

 

As promised, and for your information only, an advance copy of the draft minutes of the PWSCG on your item:

 

“The Met Office provided an update on progress made in responding to the request from a member of the public regarding ice warnings for cyclists. Current guidance has been updated in consultation with cycling bodies, and the individual has been involved as a peer reviewer, as well as in a focus session on the NSWWS. Input from the individual has been helpful, although feedback through social media has shown that there are a wide range of views on this topic from the cycling community.

 

The PWSCG considered a paper that had been sent by the individual to the Met Office on improving ice predictions. The recommendations of the paper were considered by the PWSCG and noted to be quite onerous. Although they could be considered in developing future services, it was felt that the amount of effort to develop such services would be prohibitive in light of financial constraints. The PWSCG welcomed the initiative of the individual in raising the visibility of cyclists’ needs as users of the PWS, and agreed it would take forward work to better understand the needs of cyclists through consultation with their official and representative bodies.”

 

I’d just like to thank you for your work in raising the needs of cyclists in the PWS, and I hope you have noticed – and will continue to see – a greater emphasis on cyclists as a user group in the outputs of the PWS. You will also see that the PWSCG has agreed to take forward this consultation work with the various representative bodies directly, which I’m sure you will agree is a very positive step. This enables us to build a broad evidence base upon which we can prioritise the development of the PWS in financially challenging times to meet as many user needs as we can. Of course, this means we would not expect any further input from yourself direct to the PWSCG, but I’m certain you will ensure your thoughts are fed through the representative bodies as we engage with them.

 

Best regards,

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4 Response from MET Office on 11 October 2016 to supporting email from one of the cycling organisations

 

 

 

Dear 

 

Thanks for contacting the Met Office and confirming support by XXX for information that supports decision making by cyclists to protect themselves from the hazard caused by ice.

 

The primary purpose of the Met Office Public Weather Service is to help protect lives, property and infrastructure from the impacts of weather and to contribute to UK economic growth through the effective use of weather information. This is achieved by providing accurate and trusted weather warnings to the public and UK emergency responder organisations covering weather impacts that present a risk to life, property and infrastructure, and providing high quality and resilient advisory services to responder organisations to support their decision-making and planning. We also aim to provide ever more accurate, useful and detailed weather forecasts and information to the public, enabling them to take better informed decisions that reduce impacts, costs or other economic benefit.

 

I am pleased to confirm that the Met Office Public Weather Service and its stakeholder group – The Public Weather Service Customer Group (see the following link for further information --http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/about-us/what/pws/customer-group), is planning to consult with a number of organisations that represent the interests of UK cyclists undertaking regular/daily travel and commuter journeys which is where we currently see the primary risk, aligned to our Public Task.

 

The Met Office is familiar with the paper prepared by Mr Daniels and we are grateful for his proposals and recommendations that relate to the hazard which ice presents to cyclists. We will ensure that this paper and its recommendations are considered within the aforementioned consultation.

 

Kind regards,

 

 

 

5 Email from PWSCG secretariat to Kevin Daniels referring to specific points in the above paper

 

25 August 2016

 

Dear Mr Daniels,

I promised I would send a brief email summarising our discussion last Friday during which I explained the following:

 

1.      We fully appreciated your proposals would be of benefit to cyclists, but our challenge was how best to use our limited funds to deliver maximum benefit, particularly in financially challenging times.

2.      When Met Office forecasters refer to ground frost for gardeners they are applying judgement based upon forecasts of air temperature and general weather conditions.

3.      The 7,500 forecasts for locations across the UK available via the app are produced automatically without any human intervention and since road surface temperature is not predicted in the model adding this would entail a significant cost.

4.      As a compromise I said that the Met Office were exploring making reference to the possibility of icy roads in the video forecast which is provided on the app and using social media to signpost people to advice from cycling organisations on how to cycle safely in such conditions. However, these forecasts would be at a regional scale and would not take into account that the road may be wet for non-weather reasons such as run off from fields, leaky water mains etc  This would be very similar to the service provided for gardeners.

5.      The Met Office app will continue to incorporate additional functionality and I expected air temperature maps would be incorporated in due course

6.      The Met Office and PWSCG would meet with cycling organisations to better understand cyclists requirements for weather information and to explore whether there were alternate mechanisms for funding a bespoke cycling weather app

7.      That Denise Harker had seen your correspondence and I was discussing my response to you with her

 

You pointed out that you had provided the Met Office with a number of cycling organisation contacts not all of whom had been contacted. I said that I would discuss with the Met Office and ask them to provide an update on the progress which has been made ahead of the coming winter to all of the contacts you provided.

 

If you have any suggestions as to how a cycling specific app could be funded then please make contact with the various cycling organisations.

 

Given the current financial pressures we face, and based upon the discussions at the last customer group meeting, it is unlikely that the Met Office will be able to provide any further ice forecast information in the foreseeable future. Thank you again for bringing this issue to our attention.

 

 

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