3 Principal points

The paragraph numbering below corresponds to the page numbering in the web site menu, found by clicking on the principal headings at the head of this page

2 Call to the MET Office

The core role of the MET Office is its services to the public to deliver the UK's Public Weather Service (PWS)

To support the Government’s Active Travel Initiative the MET Office is called on to:

Improve the accuracy of ice forecasting-so that it is suitable for cyclists to make informed travel decisions

Publish accuracy targets for ice forecasting and performance against these targets-to give cyclists confidence in the forecasts

Publish road surface temperatures – to remove the public’s confusion that ‘temperature’ forecasts are a reliable guide to ice risk

Introduce the forecasting of ice risk when it arises from water seeping onto frozen roads – to correct this significant omission

4 Government Policy

‘Better safety’ is a stated ambition of the Government Cycling and Walking Investment Strategy

5 Evidence to support the need to for MET Office ice predictions to improve

5.1 Serious injury statistics for cyclists compared with other road users

More cyclists than any other road users are seriously injured

5.2 Extent of cyclist hospital admissions caused by slipping on ice

Slipping on ice is estimated as the second highest cause of cyclist hospital admissions

5.3 How common is icy weather

A survey of English local authorities across the country showed that, on average, ice occured every 2-3 days from Nov to March in the last 10 years

5.4 Contributory factors to numbers of road casualties

The number of serious cycling casualties caused by ice are comparable to or exceed the number of injuries caused to all road users arising from causes such as drink driving, speeding and road user fatigue.

5.5 MET Office ice forecast quality control

5.5.1 How accurate are MET Office forecasts

Survey data shows a low level of accuracy of ice forecasting by the MET Office

5.5.2 MET Office evaluation of the accuracy of its Public Weather Service ice forecasts

The MET Office does not routinely evaluate the accuracy of ice forecasts unless they reach the level of an amber or red Severe Weather Warning’. Amber and red ice warnings are very infrequent.

5.5.3 Omissions from MET Office forecasting

5.5.3.1 Forecasting ice as a result of water run-off onto frozen roads

The omission of forecasting ice a result of water run-off (seepage) onto frozen roads is likely to be a notable contributor to the low level of accuracy of MET Office ice forecasts

5.5.3.2 Road surface temperatures (RST’s)

Even when air temperatures are as high as four or five degrees Celsius, ground temperatures often dip below freezing so that ice is possible

It is the road surface temperature and whether the road is wet or dry that determines whether ice will form rather than air temperature

Instead of expecting the public to follow complex and incomplete advice on ice prediction, the new MET Office super computer should be used for this purpose starting with the publication of road surface temperatures(RSTs)’

In November 2016, the PWSCG advised that it was not within their gift to require the MET Office to publish road surface temperatures which were only published on a commercial basis

Is the reason that it is not in the gift of the PWSCG to require the MET Office to publish road surface temperatures because the MET Office considers commercial business more important than the Public Weather Service?

6 Severe Weather Warnings

Encouraging MET advice by email on 13 March 2017:

‘ In the last few months we have got the ability to display warnings for just a single local authority. We are still developing the forecaster’s tool with aims to issue warnings faster, without errors and with smaller focus areas/narrower timings’

7 Easy Wins available to MET Office

8 Weather stations

Publicly available weather station data is an important source of information

9 Ice Forecasting for individual locations in the UK

There are 11 weather types that are forecast on an hourly basis for 7500 UK sites. Ice is one of the few major weather types not included

10 MET Office links to salting and gritting information

11 Support from the BBC

The BBC are hopeful that they can make progress in better informing people about road conditions

12 Vision

A phone app that reliably forecasts weather along the route of any planned journey

Think twICE